Effects Of Dividend Changes Emerging Market -Myassignmenthelp.Com

Question: Discuss About The Effects Of Dividend Changes Emerging Market? Answer: Introduction: This report has been prepared to identify and evaluate the position, performance and worth of the Almarai Company. For evaluating the worth of the company, various financial tools and non financial tools have been analyzed. Firstly, the stockholder analysis has been done to evaluate the position and management style of the company. For this analysis, it has been evaluated that why the people are investing into this project. Further, it has been evaluated that who are the marginal stockholders of the company and how the corporate governance of the company is working. Further, it has been evaluated that what is the risk of the company in concern of the investment and how much return would be offered by the company to its shareholders (Zhang, 2012). In addition, investment return of the company has been measured and the study has been conducted on the long term and short term projects of the company. Further, capital structure choices of the company has also been evaluated and to analyze the debt and equity level of the company. Further, the optimal capital structure has been evaluated to identify the solvency risk of the company and a better balance among the stock of the company. Various theories have also been read to evaluate and identify the optimal capital level of the company. Lastly, dividend policy of the company has been evaluated and it has been analyzed that through which trend the dividends are offered by the company to its shareholders. A dividend framework of the company has been evaluated and lastly, a valuation study has been given which expresses about the total worth of the company and the position of the investment funds of the company (Thanatawee, 2013). Further, it also explains that how much earnings would be earned by an investor against his investment money in the company. Stockholder analysis: Firstly, the stockholder analysis has been done to evaluate the position and management style of the company. For this analysis, it has been evaluated that why the people are investing into this project. The annual report of the company expresses that the corporate has invested 63.74% in the company whereas 36.26% of stock has been owned by the individuals. Individuals have invested in the company to reduce the level of the tax burden (Tucker, 2011). Further, the mutual fund companies have invested 52.4% of total investment in the company. Government has invested 4% and the rest amount has been invested for the individual and the corporate to enhance the invested amount. The following table explains about the total investment in the company. investor type Number of investors Number of Shares Percentage of ownership Corporate 254 509957679 63.74% Individual 49472 290042321 36.26% Total 49726 800000000 (Investors, 2018) Further it has been analyzed that who are the marginal investors of the company and handling the business of the company on the behalf of other stakeholders of the company. Further, it explains that how the other people of the company are looking on the market position and the performance of the company (Travlos, Trigeorgis and Vafeas, 2015). Through the study on annual report of the company, it has been found that the HH Prince Sultan bin Mohammed bin Saud Al Kabeer is the main marginal investor of the company. He handles all the business and the activities of the company n the behalf of other shareholders of the company. More to it, it has also been found that the mutual fund companies are also involving into the activities of the company to look over the profitability position of the company. It has been expected from the marginal investor of Almarai Company to work with dignity and the stockholders benefits must also be considered (Shao, Kwok and Guedhami, 2013). Marginal investors must be the person who is a well diversified investor and must have knowledge about the stock market. Since, the marginal investor of Almarai Company is well diversified and working with dignity in the market, it could be said that the performance of the company is better and this company would offer a great dividend to its stockholders and the associated risk of the stock of the company would also be lesser. Risk and return: Further, for evaluation the position of the company and the investment opportunity in the company, risk and return of the company has been evaluated and it has been analyzed that how the company and its stock is operating in the market. Firstly, the risk profile of the company has been calculated and it has been found that overall systematic risk of the company is 0.67 (Bloomberg, 2018). Further, the unsystematic risk of the company could not be calculated but the annual report and financial analysts report explains that the company is managing and performing the activities and operations in a good manner. Further, the performance profile of the company has been evaluated and it has been found that the position and the performance of the company have been better. The risk of the company is 0.67 which express about a lower level of risk. The companys report explains that the stock of the company is out performed. The resources of the company have been utilized by the company in a prop er way (Naser, Nuseibeh and Rashed, 2013). Further, for performing this study, various subsidiary companies of Almarai limited have been evaluated and it has been found that how much stock and the capital of the company is owned by the people and what is weight of the company, how much the systemic risk of the company and what is the risk and return of the company. According to the stock price of the companies, the best of the companies have been calculated and the weight has been calculated through dividing the total market capital of each company with the total market capital of Almarai limited. According to the calculations and the measurements, following data has been calculated: Business Estimated value Unlevered beta Division weight Weight * Beta Western Bakeries Limited 588005395 0.63 73.50% 0.46305 International Banking services co 55497757 1.25 6.94% 0.08672 Almarai Bahrain co 33479206 1.5 4.18% 0.06277 Markley Holdings co 45082982 1.1 5.64% 0.06199 Almarai investment co 23592877 0.7 2.95% 0.02064 Almarai baby food co 54341783 1.25 6.79% 0.08491 800000000 100% 0.78008 (Gulf Base, 2018) Further, the financial statement of the company expresses that the total equity of the company and total debt of the company is as follows: Price Debt 10,54,31,25,000 Equity 12,93,92,83,000 23,48,24,08,000 It explains that the debt level of the company is bit lower than total equity of the company. Further, the risk free rate of the market has been evaluated and it has been found that the total risk free rate is 6.08% and the market premium of the company is 6%. At the same time the best of the company is 0.67 (Masum, 2014). The tax rate of the company is 36% and the interest rate on debt of the company is 8%. It explains that the cost of equity of the company is 6.03% and the cost of debt of the company is 5.12%. Calculations are as follows: Calculation of cost of debt Outstanding debt 10,54,31,25,000 interest rate 8% Tax rate 0.36 Kd 5.12% Calculation of cost of equity (CAPM) RF 6.08% RM 6.00% Beta 0.67 Required rate of return 6.03% Further, the total cost of capital of the company has been evaluated on the basis of cost of debt and cost of equity of the company and it has been found that the total cost of capital of the company is 5.62% which explains that the company should invest in those projects which would offer it more than 5.62% of internal rate of return. Calculation of WACC Price Cost Weight WACC Debt 10,54,31,25,000 5.12% 0.44898 0.02299 Equity 12,93,92,83,000 6.03% 0.55102 0.03321 23,48,24,08,000 Kd 5.62% (DEEPTEE and ROSHAN, 2009) Measuring investment returns: The typical project of the company has been evaluated for further study and it has been found that the main typical project of every subsidiary company of Almarai limited is different. Through the analysis on every subsidiary company, it has been found that all the companies are working on long term as well as sort term typical project. Further, the annual report of the company explains that the main typical project of the company is Davidson creek hub project. It is a short term project of the company and the company is working on this project from last 9 months. This project is related to minerals and it expresses that this project has helped the company to enhance the stock price as well as the financial performance of the company has also been enhanced. The cash flow patterns of the company have also been changed due to its new project, Davidson Creek Hub Project (Annual Report, 2018). The current book value of the investment of the company is SAR 9,480,000. It depicts that the short term investment position of the company has been enhanced from last years in current year. It explains that the company is focusing on investment in the new projects and the stocks to enhance the financial position and the performance of the company. The future trends of the investment and the current projects of the company explain about the great performance of the company which is way better than the past trends of the company. Further, it has been investigated that the position of the company in terms of investment and the return from the investment is higher (Davies and Crawford, 2011). Through the study on the return on investment of the company from last 3 years, it has been found that the return on investment of the company in current year is 0.45% which is quite higher than the position and the performance of 2016 and 2015. Investment 94,80,000 46,80,000 34,38,000 Net profit 2,11,11,44,000 2,01,50,91,000 1,91,56,91,000 Return on investment 0.45% 0.23% 0.18% It explains that the current project of the company has helped the comapny to enhance the net profit of the company and that is why the return of the company has also been enhanced. Capital structure choices: For further study, the funds of the company have been analyzed through which the funds have been raised. Through the study, it has been found that the company has used the short term debt, long term debt, retained earnings, equity and various other ways to raise the funds of the company (Breuer, Rieger and Soypak, 2014). Following are the ways of the company and the accounting figure of each fund of the company: 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 Short-term debt 2258988000 1484416000 2039057000 1821342000 1682970000 Taxes payable 272906000 Other current liabilities 3239215000 3308904000 2767579000 2221592000 2037493000 Total current liabilities 5771109000 4793320000 4806636000 4042934000 3720463000 Non-current liabilities Long-term debt 10543125000 10134730000 9343435000 7737026000 8288900000 Deferred taxes liabilities 48060000 56492000 67123000 84394000 119985000 Pensions and other benefits 540143000 472186000 408073000 340045000 Minority interest 396867000 421250000 559783000 744080000 621718000 Other long-term liabilities 652315000 41212000 63427000 45556000 46389000 Total non-current liabilities 11640367000 11193827000 10505954000 9019129000 9417037000 Total liabilities 17411476000 15987147000 15312590000 13062063000 13137500000 Stockholders' equity Retained earnings 1998246000 2796393000 3659639000 2569564000 1714303000 Treasury stock -453156000 -378994000 -330699000 -146386000 -146386000 Accumulated other comprehensive income 12939283000 10618194000 8729505000 8463674000 8574553000 Total stockholders' equity 14484373000 13035593000 12058445000 10886852000 10142470000 Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 31895849000 29022740000 27371035000 23948915000 23279970000 (Morningstar, 2018) Through the analysis, it has been found that the debt and equity which has been enhanced by the company in terms of raising the funds are as follows: Price Debt 10,54,31,25,000 Equity 12,93,92,83,000 Total funds 23,48,24,08,000 (Morningstar, 2018) It explains that the total quantity of debt has been enhanced and it explains that the debt amount has been enhanced by the company to reduce the level of the cost. In terms of quantity, the debt amount has been enhanced by the company to manage the cost and in terms of quality; the debt amount would lower the level of ownership in the company. Further, it explains that the debt amount is used by the companies to manage the risk and return level and it also assists the company to manage the lower level of cost of capital of the company (Correria, 2013). The below calculations express that the cost of debt of the company is lower than the cost of equity and thus the debt amount would reduce the level of the cost of capital of the company : Calculation of WACC Price Cost Weight WACC Debt 10,54,31,25,000 5.12% 0.44898 0.02299 Equity 12,93,92,83,000 6.03% 0.55102 0.03321 23,48,24,08,000 Kd 5.62% Further, it has been found that the debt amount has some cons as well. The debt amount enhances the borrowings of the company and it directly burdens on the balance sheet of the company (Breuer, Rieger and Soypak, 2014). Further, the debt amount increases the risk of the company as it is required for the company to pay the debt amount to the debt holders after a period of time. In addition, it has been found that the level of debt has been enhanced by the company lot in current year in comparison with the past 2 years. Further, it has been found that the current debt ratio of the company is 54.59% which explains about the company that current debt amount of the company is moderate it is not too much nor it is too lower (Bradford, Chen and Zhu, 2013). The following table explains about the debt amount of the company: Total liabilities 17411476000 15987147000 15312590000 Total assets 31895849000 29022740000 27371035000 Debt ratio 54.59% 55.08% 55.94% (Brealey, Myers and Marcus, 2007) Optimal capital structure: Further, the optimal level of the capital structure of the company has been evaluated and the current debt financing of the company is 44% debt and the 55.10% of equity. This debt amount includes only long term debt of the company which has maturity of 5years. Further, the entire debt is floating as long term debt. Following are few of the factors which have been considered by the company in managing the performance of the company: Price Weight Debt 10,54,31,25,000 0.44898 Equity 12,93,92,83,000 0.55102 23,48,24,08,000 It explains that the debt of the company is quite lower than the cost of equity of the company (Bodie, 2013). For the optimal capital structure of the company, following calculations have been done: Debt Equity Cost of debt Cost of equity Cost of capital 0% 100% 5.12% 6.03% 6.03% 10% 90% 5.12% 6.03% 5.94% 20% 80% 5.12% 6.03% 5.85% 30% 70% 5.12% 6.03% 5.75% 40% 60% 5.12% 6.03% 5.66% 50% 50% 5.12% 6.03% 5.57% 60% 40% 5.12% 6.03% 5.48% 70% 30% 5.12% 6.03% 5.39% 80% 20% 5.12% 6.03% 5.30% 90% 10% 5.12% 6.03% 5.21% 100% 0% 5.12% 6.03% 5.12% (Barman, 2008) It explains that the cost of capital would be lower when the entire funds are raised by the company through debt, but in that case the risk of the company would be higher. Optimal capital structure must be the point where the risk and the cost, both of the company would be lower so the optimal capitals structure of the company should be 40% of debt and 60% of equity of the company (Baker and Weigand, 2015). Further, it has been evaluated that the current debt ratio of the company is 44% and 55%. It explains that the company would reduce the level of the debt to manage the optimal capitals structure. The optimal capitals structure of the company has been evaluated in context with the sector optimal capitals structure and market capitals structure and it has been evaluated that the current debt structure of the company is according to the sector ratio but the decrement in the debt ratio would assist the company to manage the risk and cost both of the company (Schlichting, 2013). The agro industry of Saudi Arabia explains that the debt structure of the company has been enhanced in 2017 from last year to manage the debt structure of the company and reduce the cost of the company. Mechanics of moving to the optimal: From the above study, it has been found that the current debt ratio of the company is 44% and 55%. And according to the optimal capital structure equation and study, the debt ratio of the company must be the point where the risk and the cost, both of the company would be lower so the optimal capitals structure of the company should be 40% of debt and 60% of equity of the company It explains that the company must reduce the level of the debt to manage the optimal capitals structure (Phillips and Stawarski, 2016). The current scenario of the company explains that the debt level of the company must be altered by the company with time. The sudden changes into the debt structure of the company would affect on the stock price and financial performance of the company. Further, it explains that the company should buy back retiring the debt to reduce the level of the debt in the company (Palicka, 2011). It would help the company to manage the optimal capital structure as well as the risk and cost factor of the company would also be better. Further, it has also been found that the current amount has been invested by the company in projects. So, it would be difficult for the company to administer the financial position and reduce the debt level of the company (Madhura, 2014). So, it is recommended to the company to enhance the funds through equity when the new funds are invested into the new project. Dividend policy: The dividend policy of the company has been evaluated and it has been found that the company is paying a good amount of dividend to its stockholders from last 4 years. It explains that the dividend amount of the company has been enhanced in 2017 from last years. Dividend paid -717905000 -687721000 -598542000 -598275000 Further, it has been found that the company not only offers the dividend to the stockholders, it also returns the cash to the stockholders through buy back the shares. Form last 4 years the buyback report of the company is as follows: Common stock repurchased -75533000 -75414000 -260530000 Further, the dividend yield of the company has been evaluated to determine the debt level of the company and it has been found that the dividend yield of the company is 3.98% which explains that the dividend of the company is modest (Krantz, 2016). Dividend yield Annual dividend / current stock price 0.039813 Annual dividend 2.13 Current stock price 53.5 (Kurth, 2013) Further, for evaluating the performance of the company, it has been found that the various stocks have been bought back by the company. It has been found that the company has paid the following cash amount to its stockholders in last 4 years: Year FCFE Dividend + Stock Buybacks 2014 458314000 598275000 2015 306984000 859072000 2016 -769690000 763135000 2017 1099507000 793438000 Further, through the above analysis it has been found that this company is paying a great amount of cash to its stockholders. The evaluation on the market and the literature explains that the cash return to the stockholders is not good for the financial performance of the company (Kinsky, 2011). If the company has a great amount of cash than this cash amount must not be paid back by the company to its stockholders rather than the company must invest this amount into new projects so that the financial and market performance and position of the company could be better. A framework for analyzing dividends: Further, the study has been done to manage a framework for the company to evaluate and analyze the dividend. Firstly, it has been analyzed that the following amount has been returned by the company to the stockholders in last few years: Year FCFE Dividend + Stock Buybacks 2014 458314000 598275000 2015 306984000 859072000 2016 -769690000 763135000 2017 1099507000 793438000 According to the study and the evaluation on total cash which has been paid by the company to the stockholders, it is recommended to the company to reduce the level of cash payment and must invest this amount to the new projects and proposal (Elton, Gruber, Brown and Goetzmann, 2009). The company has a great amount of cash currently so this cash amount must not be paid back by the company to its stockholders rather than the company must invest this amount into new projects so that the financial and market performance and position of the company could be better. The comparative study has been done on the stock by back and dividend amount of the company with its competitive company and it has been evaluated that the competitive company and the industry explains that the no company is currently buying back the shares. All the companies are just giving the dividend amount to the company in terms of cash. Valuation: Lastly, the valuation study has been done on the company and it has been found that the net cash flow from operating activities of the company is continuously increasing. The following table explains that the current increment trend in the operating activities of the company is 5.02% (Baker and Nofsinger, 2010). On the other hand the financial analyst report and the industry trend explain that the operating income of the company would definitely increase in near future due to the new operations and old loyal customers of the company. 2017 2016 2015 2014 Net cash provided by operating activities 4614147000 4393591000 4931941000 3198763000 Trend 5.02% -10.92% 54.18% (Jadwa, 2018) Further, it has been found that the current growth rate of the company in the industry is quite better. Still, it would take around 10 years for the company to be leader in the market and to set the industry trend. Through, the annual report of the company explains that the growth rate of the company is 5.79% which explains about better position of the company. Still, there is a lot time to go for the company to become a leader in the market and manage the performance of the company (Ackert and Deaves, 2009). Lastly, the equity worth of the company has been evaluated and it has been found that the intrinsic value of the company is 50 whereas the current stock price of the company is 53.3. It explains that the stock price of the company is overvalued and the stock of the company must be sold. Dividend Discount Model Dividend expected 2.50 Growth rate 3.00% Discount rate 8.00% Intrinsic Value 50.00 Share Price 53.30 (Infront analytics) Overvalued References: Ackert, L. and Deaves, R. 2009. Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets. Cengage Learning. Annual Report. 2018. Almarai Limited. Viewed Jan 31, 2018, https://www.almarai.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Annual-Report-2016-EN-new.pdf?x11237 Baker, H.K. and Nofsinger, J.R. 2010. Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets. John Wiley Sons. Baker, H.K. and Weigand, R., 2015. Corporate dividend policy revisited.Managerial Finance,41(2), pp.126-144. Barman, G.P., 2008. An evaluation of how dividend policies impact on the share value of selected companies. Bloomberg. 2018. Almarai Limited. Viewed Jan 31, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ALMARAI:AB Bodie, Z., 2013.Investments. McGraw-Hill. Bradford, W., Chen, C. and Zhu, S., 2013. Cash dividend policy, corporate pyramids, and ownership structure: Evidence from China.International Review of Economics Finance,27, pp.445-464. Brealey, R., Myers, S.C. and Marcus, A.J., 2007.FundamentalsofCorporate Finance. Mc Graw Hill, New York. Breuer, W., Rieger, M.O. and Soypak, K.C., 2014. The behavioral foundations of corporate dividend policy a cross-country analysis.Journal of Banking Finance,42, pp.247-265. CORREIA, C. 2013. FinancialManagement.7thEdition. Cape Town: Juta andCompany Ltd.2. Davies, T. and Crawford, I., 2011.Business accounting and finance. Pearson. DEEPTEE, P. and ROSHAN, B. 2009. Signaling Power of Dividends on firms futureProfits A Literature Review. Evergreen Energy- Interdisciplinary Journal, pp.1-9. Elton, E.J., Gruber, M.J., Brown, S.J., and Goetzmann, W.N. 2009. Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis. John Wiley Sons. Gulf Base. 2018. Almarai Limited. Viewed Jan 31, 2018, https://www.gulfbase.com/subsidiaries-almarai-co-almarai-486-5-39 Hillier, D., Grinblatt, M. and Titman, S., 2011.Financial markets and corporate strategy. McGraw Hill. Infront Analytics. 2018. Almarai Limited. Viewed Jan 31, 2018, https://www.infrontanalytics.com/fe-en/30073GS/Almarai-Co-Ltd-/Beta Investors. 2018. Almarai Limited. Viewed Jan 31, 2018, https://www.almarai.com/en/investors Jadwa. 2018. Almarai Limited. Viewed Jan 31, 2018, https://www.jadwa.com/en/download/saudi-economy-2017/research-13-1-1-1-1 Kinsky, R. 2011. Charting Made Simple: A Beginner's Guide to Technical Analysis. John Wiley Sons. Krantz, M. 2016. Fundamental Analysis for Dummies. John Wiley Sons. Kurth, S. 2013. Critical Review about Implications of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. GRIN Verlag. Madura, J. 2014. Financial Markets and Institutions. Cengage Learning. Masum, A.A., 2014. Dividend policy and its impact on stock priceA study on commercial banks listed in Dhaka stock exchange. Morningstar. 2018. Almarai Limited. Viewed Jan 31, 2018, https://financials.morningstar.com/balance-sheet/bs.html?t=2280region=sauculture=en-US Naser, K., Nuseibeh, R. and Rashed, W., 2013. Managers' perception of dividend policy: Evidence from companies listed on Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange.Issues in Business Management and Economics,1(1), pp.001-012. Palicka, V.J. 2011. Fusion Analysis: Merging Fundamental and Technical Analysis for Risk-Adjusted Excess Returns. McGraw Hill Professional. Phillips, P.P. and Stawarski, C.A. 2016. Data Collection: Planning for and Collecting All Types of Data. John Wiley Sons. Schlichting, T. 2013. Fundamental Analysis, Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis on the Stock Market. GRIN Verlag. Shao, L., Kwok, C.C. and Guedhami, O., 2013. DIVIDEND POLICY: BALANCING SHAREHOLDERS'AND CREDITORS'INTERESTS.Journal of Financial Research,36(1), pp.43-66. Thanatawee, Y., 2013. Ownership structure and dividend policy: Evidence from Thailand. Travlos, N.G., Trigeorgis, L. and Vafeas, N., 2015. Shareholder wealth effects of dividend policy changes in an emerging stock market: The case of Cyprus. Tucker, J.W., 2011. Selection bias and econometric remedies in accounting and finance research. Zhang, D., 2012. Managerial dividend-paying incentives. Erasmus University Rotterdam.

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